Home eCommerce The way to Forecast PPC Prices and Income

The way to Forecast PPC Prices and Income

The way to Forecast PPC Prices and Income


I’m usually requested to undertaking pay-per-click prices and income. The duty is difficult owing to variables reminiscent of historic information, developments, rivals, and, critically, unexpected elements.

Nonetheless, right here’s my strategy.

Historic Knowledge

Reviewing previous information is my first step in assembling projections. The static numbers are useful, however the true worth is the developments. Say I’m projecting prices and income for the primary six months of 2024. Listed below are instance spend, income, and return on advert spend figures for the primary six months of the earlier three years.

  January February March April Might June
Spend: 2023 $40,000 $39,000 $42,000 $55,000 $59,000 $63,000
Spend: 2022 $37,000 $38,000 $40,000 $48,000 $52,000 $54,900
Spend: 2021 $38,000 $38,500 $39,000 $46,000 $48,000 $51,000
Income: 2023 $83,000 $79,500 $88,500 $135,000 $145,000 $156,000
Income: 2022 $74,000 $81,000 $81,000 $107,000 $122,000 $130,000
Income: 2021 $60,000 $63,500 $82,100 $101,000 $110,000 $115,000
ROAS: 2023 107.50% 103.85% 110.71% 145.45% 145.76% 147.62%
ROAS: 2022 100.00% 113.16% 102.50% 122.92% 134.62% 136.79%
ROAS: 2021 57.89% 64.94% 110.51% 119.57% 129.17% 125.49%

Notice the developments:

  • Spend, income, and ROAS improve considerably from Q1 to Q2.
  • Spend and income have typically elevated annually.
  • Spend and income have a tendency to extend every month of Q2.

After reviewing these numbers, I’ll have a look at account exercise to place them into context. Rising prices make sense for extra campaigns and key phrases — extra protection requires extra price range. Conversely, constant campaigns and key phrases might nonetheless end in greater prices per click on. Google confirmed throughout its current antitrust trial that it inflates CPCs.

Key phrase Planner

Google’s Key phrase Planner gives search quantity and price by key phrase for the earlier 12 and 24 months. For instance, the key phrase “roof racks” averaged 27,100 month-to-month searches final 12 months. Searches slowed within the winter months, picked up in the summertime, decreased within the fall, and rose heading into the vacations.

Screenshot of graph in Google's Keyword Planner showing the search volume of "roof racks"

Searches for the key phrase “roof racks” slowed within the winter months, picked up in the summertime, decreased within the fall, and rose heading into the vacations.

The software additionally estimates top-of-page bids, high and low. I look solely on the excessive vary since I presume prices will improve. For “roof racks,” the excessive top-of-page bid estimate is $3.22. Thus the month-to-month price for that key phrase is:

27,100 searches * $3.22 = $87,262

A month-to-month price of $87,262 may very well be a whole advert price range, not only a single key phrase! Fortunately, the quantity is a mirage. It doesn’t think about bid technique, conversion selections, and adverse key phrases.

A extra correct projection is within the “Forecast” part, which incorporates bid technique and match sort however not, notably, ROAS or cost-per-acquisition targets. Thus a “maximize conversions” bid technique will present the next price with out these targets.

Google’s “Forecast” makes use of historic search information, bid competitors, visitors, and advert interactions. Right here is the projection, under, for “roof racks” and associated key phrases with a maximize conversions bid technique over the following 12 months.

Screenshot of projection showing conversions, CPA, clicks, impressions, cost, CTR, and average CPC.

Google’s “Forecast” makes use of historic search information, bid competitors, visitors, and advert interactions. This instance is for the key phrase “roof racks.”

Once more, the numbers are estimates, an informed guess. An analogous software, “Efficiency Planner,” tasks present campaigns.

Remaining Plans

Having reviewed historic and forecast information, I can create the projections. I sometimes present “gentle” and “aggressive” choices to assist purchasers visualize potential income from the next spend. I generally undertaking in additional element, reminiscent of by account or initiative.

I’ll begin with a conservative “gentle” plan and focus carefully on targets whereas accounting for possible greater prices.

Right here’s an instance. The shopper goals to extend month-to-month income by 10% whereas maintaining goal ROAS inside 5% of 2023 efficiency. The January 2023 metrics had been:

  • Spend: $40,000
  • Income: $83,000
  • ROAS: 107.50%

A ten% income improve can be $91,300, and the ROAS might be no decrease than 102.13% (5% lower than 2023). A spend of $45,000 will yield a 102.89% ROAS:

($91,300 – $45,000) / $45,000 = 102.89%

Including $5,000 to the January 2024 price range is a 12.5% improve over January 2023 — for a ten% income achieve and a 4.29% decrease ROAS. The projections presume CPC will increase with a minimal (5%) ROAS loss.

The “aggressive” plan sometimes focuses on buyer acquisition — extra income from greater spend — not ROAS. I’ll possible use Google’s projections, that are aggressive by default, mixed with reasonable changes, reminiscent of a shopper’s danger stage and max price range.

Persevering with the instance, Google’s projections present a $60,000 spend in January 2024, a 50% improve from final 12 months. Attaining a ROAS at the very least 96.76% (10% lower than final 12 months’s) would end in a 42.2% improve in income, to $118,056.

($118,056 – $60,000) / $60,000 = 96.76%

Forecasting prices and income from Google Advertisements isn’t a precise science contemplating all of the variables. But it surely’s useful to set targets and expectations for advertisers.



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