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Market Outlook #248 – An Altcoin Dealer’s Weblog

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Market Outlook #248 – An Altcoin Dealer’s Weblog

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Market Outlook #248 (third December 2023)

Good day, and welcome to the 248th instalment of my Market Outlook.

On this week’s put up, I will probably be overlaying Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Polygon, Oasis Community, Amp and Unibot.

As ever, when you have any requests for subsequent week, ship them throughout.

Bitcoin:

Weekly:

btcusdweekly

Every day:

btcusddaily

Worth: $39,449

Market Cap: $771.620bn

Ideas: If we start by taking a look at BTC/USD on the weekly timeframe, we are able to see that worth is about to shut the week at recent yearly highs, in addition to highs of the week, on comparable quantity to the prior three weeks, having rallied off the open at $37.4k into help turned resistance right here at $39.6k. This continues to look promising for larger costs, to be trustworthy – momentum nonetheless seems sturdy and we’ve simply closed via multi-week resistance. subsequent week, I’d anticipate this squeeze to proceed into $42k, the place there’s prone to be far more resistance given the confluence. If we do see worth push up into that degree, I will probably be seeking to hedge some spot publicity and look to take away the hedge after we settle for above that degree. For draw back threat, any wick up above $39.6k in direction of $42k and subsequent shut again inside $39.6k would start to appear like a neighborhood prime to me, from which level we are able to begin on the lookout for shorts probably again so far as $33k to filter all of those current untapped lows. That is clearly assuming we do get that prime formation within the subsequent week or two under $42k. Invalidation on any brief publicity is clearly acceptance above $42k, however till we appear like a prime has fashioned I’d not rush to fade the primary weekly shut via multi-week consolidation.

Turning to the each day, we are able to see how momentum had reset and is now curling larger once more as worth has damaged via resistance at $38k and turned it into help on this timeframe, which is tremendous promising for December price-action, for my part. If we are able to maintain above $38k early subsequent week, I’d anticipate worth to simply preserve pushing up with no actual resistance between $39.6k and $42k. If, nevertheless, we deviate above $39.6k early subsequent week after which break and shut again inside $38k, that may appear like the $42k degree is getting front-run and I’d turn out to be much more cautious about lengthy publicity. Not a lot else so as to add right here while construction seems like this…


Ethereum:

ETH/USD

Weekly:

ethusdweekly

Every day:

ethusddaily

ETH/BTC

Weekly:

ethbtcweekly

Every day:

ethbtcdaily

Worth: $2,163 (0.0548 BTC)

Market Cap: $260.285bn

Ideas: If we start by taking a look at ETH/USD, on the weekly we are able to see that worth rallied off resistance turned help at $2037 – a degree which worth had beforehand been chopping round for weeks. From the weekly open, worth discovered help at that degree and has rallied into new yearly highs at $2190, set to shut the week proper across the prior yearly highs at $2170. This seems very very similar to the start of a breakout from this long-term resistance degree for ETH, significantly after we contemplate how $2037 additionally acted as very sturdy resistance in August 2022 and July 2023, with worth solely deviating above that after since Might 2022’s capitulation occasion. This sturdy push off that degree and break of recent yearly highs signifies a brand new vary enlargement, for my part, as I’ve been awaiting. If we are able to flip $2170 into help subsequent week I believe we see ETH/USD push into $2426 later in December earlier than any additional resistance is discovered. Clearly, if we wick above $2190 subsequent week, making a recent yearly excessive, then reject and shut again inside $2170, that may look somewhat extra bearish and we might contemplate {that a} deviation has fashioned. However till that occurs, this seems prepared for a brand new vary.

ETH/BTC, once more we proceed to consolidated above 0.0533 and under the 200wMA at 0.0557, however worth is about to shut proper round that resistance degree as soon as once more. As I discussed final week, while we’re on this tight vary, there’s little to do, however after we see worth both shut via 0.0533 and switch that help into resistance or shut above 0.0557 and switch the 200wMA into help, then we are able to have a look at how you can play ETH for the foreseeable future. Within the former state of affairs, naturally we might look to hedge lengthy publicity or open brief publicity, in anticipation of draw back; within the latter, we expect to see the pair rally in direction of multi-year trendline resistance, subsequently outperforming for a interval. Easy.


Solana:

SOL/USD

Weekly:

solusdweekly

Every day:

solusddaily

SOL/BTC

Weekly:

solbtcweekly

Every day:

solbtcdaily

Worth: $63.45 (0.00161 BTC)

Market Cap: $26.953bn

Ideas: Starting with SOL/USD, we are able to see from the weekly that worth is discovering help above prior resistance at $53.60 and is discovering resistance at $62, marginally under the place the pair is about to shut this week. This vary has held for 3 weeks, with weekly momentum not but displaying any divergence, and while we proceed to carry above $53.60 I’m inclined to anticipate larger costs from this vary. If subsequent week see the pair flip this resistance into help above $64, I believe we see one other leg larger into that vary between $75-82. If, nevertheless, we at any level shut the weekly under $53.60 within the subsequent couple of weeks, I’d anticipate $48 to be retested under because the final degree of help earlier than a a lot deeper pullback turns into attainable in direction of $36. Dropping into the each day, we are able to see how momentum has reset now throughout this consolidation, and if we are able to begin pushing via $64 I’d anticipate momentum to hold this ahead as soon as once more, with $68 as minor resistance earlier than $75 comes into play. The bearish state of affairs right here subsequent week could be a deviation above $68 adopted by rejection and an in depth again under $61; in that state of affairs, I’d search for intraweek shorts in direction of $54, with a view to hedge down there and reopen on acceptance via that degree, with $48 then the final word goal for that brief. Beneath $48, you recognize what occurs…

Turning to SOL/BTC, we are able to see how worth is consolidating above prior resistance at 0.00137 and the 23.6% fib retracement of the bear market. We have now resistance overhead at 0.00162, the place worth is at the moment sat, and any acceptance above this opens up continuation into the 38.2% degree at 0.00208, the place there’s additionally prior help, for my part. So probably 15-20% extra upside from right here if this resistance provides method. If we’re topping out right here, nevertheless, subsequent week ought to see worth shut again under 0.00137, making it extra possible we pull-back into that untested degree at 0.00112. If we drop into the each day, we are able to see how each day construction is popping bullish once more after the temporary pullback however there’s resistance proper right here that’s proving troublesome. I believe so long as the pair continues to type these decrease timeframe higher-lows into this resistance we’re prone to see it give method and switch into reclaimed help; from there, I believe we take out 0.0018 and squeeze into 0.002, the place there will probably be far more resistance.


Polygon:

MATIC/USD

Weekly:

maticusdweekly

Every day:

maticusddaily

MATIC/BTC

Weekly:

maticbtcweekly

Every day:

maticbtcdaily

Worth: $0.811 (2058 satoshis)

Market Cap: $7.547bn

Ideas: If we start by taking a look at MATIC/USD, we are able to see from the weekly that worth has retraced off resistance at $1 into the 200wMA at $0.77 and located help this previous week, rallying off that degree into $0.82, the place it’s set to shut. Weekly construction is bullish however that $1 space has an enormous quantity of confluence for resistance, and so it’s hardly stunning worth didn’t breach it on the primary try following this rally. What bulls needs to see right here is that the pair type a macro higher-low now above the reclaimed help at $0.62 – even when we drop farther from right here into that degree weekly construction would nonetheless be intact if we type that higher-low in that space. From there, we might anticipate one other try at a $1 breakout, above which there’s little resistance into $1.30, the place we discover confluence of prior help, the 38.2% retracement of the bear market and the 78.6% retracement of the 2023 downtrend. Dropping into the each day, we are able to see how worth is definitely forming some first rate construction right here above the 200dMA and above reclaimed help at $0.74, with each day construction having turned bullish on this most up-to-date push larger. If this construction holds subsequent week and one other larger low types, I don’t suppose we see that deeper retracement earlier than one other try on the $1 breakout. Let’s see how the week unfolds…

Turning to MATIC/BTC, we are able to see that, following weekly construction turning bullish, worth rallied via the 200wMA into 2704 satoshis and rejected, closing again under that degree and retracing now into reclaimed help at 2000 satoshis; a significant historic degree. If we are able to type a higher-low on this space, construction seems completely wonderful for continuation larger within the coming weeks. Nonetheless, shut again under 2000 satoshis and this rally feels a lot much less legitimate, with 1800 satoshi help coming into view for a sweep. Maintain right here and I believe the following leg takes the pair in direction of 3200 satoshis for the hole fill. Turning to the each day, we are able to see how worth faked out above the 200dMA earlier than rejecting and retraced again inside that long-term worth space between 1900-2100 satoshis, and for now we’re seeing help maintain right here. If we are able to now reclaim 2100 as help, I’d anticipate to see 2450 retested, with acceptance above that resulting in the following leg larger into 2950-3230.


Oasis Community:

ROSE/USD

Weekly:

roseusdweekly

Every day:

roseusddaily

ROSE/BTC

Weekly:

rosebtcweekly

Every day:

rosebtcdaily

Worth: $0.0849 (215 satoshis)

Market Cap: $428.513mn

Ideas: Starting with ROSE/USD, we are able to see that worth continued to rally larger this previous week, pushing past prior resistance at $0.08 into $0.088, with worth set to shut the week marginally under that degree. We’re trying on the pair inches away from a breakout past the 2023 highs, with any acceptance subsequent week above $0.088 opening up a brand new vary: above that degree, there’s zero resistance into $0.116 and I’m anticipating that vary to get crammed in swiftly, significantly following a multi-week consolidation under resistance. Clearly, if we deviate above that prime subsequent week and begin breaking down and shutting again under it, the image seems somewhat completely different. For now, this very a lot seems prepared for continuation larger, with $0.18 the first goal past $0.116.

Turning to ROSE/BTC, we are able to see that worth is now above reclaimed help at 203, with solely prior help at 219 satoshis appearing as resistance earlier than an enormous vary opens up, offering confluence for the Greenback pair. If we are able to shut the weekly firmly above 220 subsequent week, I’d anticipate ROSE to push in direction of 280 satoshis in December, with acceptance via that degree opening up the primary main resistance degree at 420 – the 23.6% fib retracement of the bear market. Dropping into the each day, we are able to see how following that multi-week consolidation above the 200dMA, worth has flipped vary resistance at 203 into help and is now holding that degree; shut again inside that and we’re prone to return to 180 for a retest, however above it I believe we proceed rallying into 270-280 the place there’s far more resistance.


Amp:

AMP/USD

Weekly:

ampusdweekly

Every day:

ampusddaily

AMP/BTC

Weekly:

ampbtcweekly

Every day:

ampbtcdaily

Worth: $0.0025 (6 satoshis)

Market Cap: $141.301mn

Ideas: If we start by taking a look at AMP/USD, we are able to see that the pair lately fashioned an all-time low at $0.0014 and has since rallied again above help at $0.0018, now consolidating under prior help turned resistance at $0.003. While that is promising, significantly when taking a look at momentum indicators, weekly construction continues to be bearish and the pair continues to be very a lot in a downtrend, in the meanwhile. If we now see a higher-low type above $0.0018 and worth then rally and settle for again above $0.03 – a key historic degree – then we are able to get thinking about a backside to be in and for additional upside to comply with. If that does happen, I’d anticipate the pair to rally off that $0.003 degree as help quickly in direction of $0.0055. If we see the pair reject this space, nevertheless, and $0.0018 doesn’t maintain, the downtrend persists and recent all-time lows are inevitable. Dropping briefly into the each day, we are able to see that worth is consolidating between the 360dMA as resistance and the 200dMA as help, with the previous having capped the final main rally, so acceptance above $0.003 may also give us acceptance above a key MA, and a sustained reversal turns into a lot larger likelihood, in my view.

Turning to AMP/BTC, the pair has very a lot performed out a textbook market cycle, with volatility having fully diminished and worth now consolidating in a good vary round all-time lows. If it is a mission you’re feeling assured in essentially (it is a reader request, and subsequently I can’t touch upon fundamentals right here), this could be precisely the place I’d be seeking to construct a spot place to be trustworthy, with a view so as to add above 16 satoshis. Wanting on the each day, we’re tightly wound proper under the 200dMA additionally, with the 360dMA looming overhead above 10 satoshis; clear all of this and it turns into very doubtless the cyclical backside has fashioned, so for these with much less threat urge for food, awaiting that may be clever.


Unibot:

UNIBOT/USD

Every day:

unibotusd

Worth: $62.97 (0.00159 BTC)

Market Cap: $63.399mn

Ideas: Lastly, let’s have a look at a mission I’ve lately purchased a spot place in: UNIBOT.

UNIBOT/USD, we are able to see the pair has solely been buying and selling for just a few months and worth has performed out most of a market cycle at this level, having fashioned an all-time excessive at $226 in August and since been trending decrease, capitulating into $27.77 in November however largely spending time in a variety between help at $43 and resistance at $78. This vary has continued since mid-September and while worth tried a breakout just a few days in the past, this failed and we at the moment are retesting $64 as help; if this degree fails, I’d anticipate $51 to be retested as help, the place these on the sidelines might additionally look to construct a place with a weekly shut under $40 being my invalidation right here. I’m seeking to maintain this for a full cycle, anticipating recent highs via $226. Into 2024 we go…

And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook.

I hope you’ve discovered worth within the learn and thanks for supporting my work!

As ever, be happy to go away any feedback or questions under, or e-mail me instantly at nik@altcointradershandbook.com.


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