Home Altcoin Market Outlook #246 – An Altcoin Dealer’s Weblog

Market Outlook #246 – An Altcoin Dealer’s Weblog

Market Outlook #246 – An Altcoin Dealer’s Weblog


Market Outlook #246 (twentieth November 2023)

Good day, and welcome to the 246th instalment of my Market Outlook.

On this week’s publish, I will likely be masking Bitcoin, Ethereum, Polygon, Avalanche, Uniswap, Beam, Sushi and LayerAI.

Most of those have been reader requests this week – as ever, ship these throughout to me for subsequent week’s inclusion if there’s one thing particular you need taking a look at.




Day by day:


Worth: $37.263

Market Cap: $728.411bn

Ideas: If we start by taking a look at BTC/USD, on the weekly timeframe we will see that value closed final week at marginal new yearly highs, having depraved decrease in direction of the prior weekly low earlier than bouncing again above the $36k space and shutting shy of $38k resistance. While this was an amazing present of power from bulls and there are nonetheless no indicators but that we now have topped on this timeframe, the actual fact we now have three consecutive weekly lows unswept because the breakout candle is one thing to bear in mind for once we inevitably do mark out an area prime. We’re sat proper round prior help right here and above $38k we now have no resistance into $39.6k, which I believe could be a pit cease earlier than the inevitable run into that main confluence of resistance at $42k: that is the place we now have an vital historic degree in addition to the 50% fib retracement of the whole bear market. Little doubt, if we will settle for above final week’s excessive this week, then that’s the extent we’re headed for earlier than marking out any prime. If, nonetheless, we wick above $38k and shut the weekly again beneath it, I believe it seems extra possible we want some form of sweep of draw back liquidity earlier than continuation.

Turning to the every day, we will see that value is making greater lows on the every day having reset RSI after the momentum divergence, and prior resistance has change into help at $36k. Holding above that early this week is vital – break beneath it and I believe we’re taking a look at a transfer again in direction of $34.2k at least. Above it, nonetheless, I believe we proceed to push, with every day closes above $38k opening up the subsequent leg greater after this consolidation in direction of $39.6k after which $42k. Nothing else so as to add right here actually besides that, if we do get a dip after this enormous rally, I might be trying on the vary between $31k-34k as a first-rate shopping for alternative for 2024.





Day by day:





Day by day:


Worth: $2029 (0.05447 BTC)

Market Cap: $244.205bn

Ideas: If we start by taking a look at ETH/USD, we will see from the weekly that value moved decrease to retest the trendline as help, bouncing and shutting proper again close to the weekly open, just under reclaimed resistance at $2037. There’s nothing about this that presently seems bearish to me: we now have a powerful trendline breakout, with that trendline performing as help, and consolidation proper at an vital resistance degree. Above $1850, this stays the case, in my opinion. If we shut the weekly again beneath $1850, it’s possible we transfer to retest that $1717-1740 vary as help, the place bulls would search to kind a higher-low. However for now, I count on to see any acceptance above $2037 this week result in $2172 giving method after which a squeeze to fill within the hole into $2425. Dropping into the every day, we will see that RSI has reset as value retraced into resistance turned help, failing to shut beneath $1957 on a number of makes an attempt. From there, value has pushed up into $2036, which is vital resistance. Bulls wish to see a every day shut above this adopted by that degree performing as help. If we see that, lengthy your longs in direction of $2425. On this timeframe, indicators of weak spot could be rejection right here adopted by a every day shut beneath $1957.

Turning to ETH/BTC, we will see that value rejected above the 200wMA once more final week, with 0.0577 performing as resistance and sending the pair again beneath 0.055, with it closing at 0.0538. We’re presently sat between reclaimed help at 0.053 and the 200wMA as resistance. Clearly, the bullish state of affairs right here could be a weekly reclaim of 0.055 as help – in that state of affairs, I believe we see ETH outperform for a number of weeks, pushing up into that trendline. Nonetheless, if we now reject the 200wMA once more and begin closing beneath 0.053, I believe the yearly lows at 0.051 get taken out and value runs into 0.0487. Wanting on the every day, we will see how 0.0533 is performing pretty much as good help at current however every day construction is bearish following the break again beneath 0.055; bulls actually need to see that degree flipped as help as soon as once more after which we will count on to see one other check of 0.0577. Very clear construction right here.





Day by day:





Day by day:


Worth: $0.858 (2303 satoshis)

Market Cap: $7.972bn

Ideas: If we start by taking a look at MATIC/USD, on the weekly we will see from the weekly that value has rallied for a number of weeks after forming a backside above reclaimed help at $0.47, pushing by way of the 200wMA a few weeks in the past after which rejecting simply shy of $1 resistance final week, with value now sat above reclaimed help at $0.75 and beneath $0.93 as resistance. From right here, I might count on to see the 200wMA act as help if that is to stay short-term bullish, with any weekly shut again beneath $0.75 opening up a deeper retracement in direction of $0.62 to kind a higher-low above the September-October backside there. If $0.75 holds this week, I might count on one other crack at $1 to comply with with nothing above that for one more 30% into $1.31. Dropping into the every day, we will see how value rejected proper across the 38.2% retracement of the bear market, with the 50% confluent with that $1 space. Clearly, for bulls, $0.92 can’t now act as resistance on a retest from beneath, else we now have a decrease excessive and one would think about a deeper pull-back would comply with, with the 200dMA aligned with reclaimed help at $0.68 as a primary space of curiosity. Settle for again above $0.92 and that is gonna squeeze a lot greater, for my part.

Turning to MATIC/BTC, we will see right here that value rejected beneath the 200wMA, confirming it as resistance at 2450 satoshis and is now sandwiched between reclaimed help at 2100 and that 200wMA and prior help. Closing the weekly again above this may be a massively promising signal for bulls, and I might count on a spot fill to comply with again in direction of 3200 satoshis from there. If we shut the weekly again beneath 2100, that invalidates numerous this construction and bulls are again at sq. one, with the multi-year lows at 1700 satoshis in plain sight…





Day by day:





Day by day:


Worth: $22.17 (59,514 satoshis)

Market Cap: $7.926bn

Ideas: Starting with AVAX/USD, we will see from the weekly that value has been on a tear this previous few months, rallying from the multi-year lows at $8.60 all the best way into $24.77 final week, closing marginally above help turned resistance at $21.70 that had capped the highs all yr. Quantity continues to develop but when we now see value break again beneath $21.70, I might be in search of $18 to carry as a higher-low given the power of the rally. Wanting on the every day for extra readability, we will see how above this degree there may be little or no resistance in any respect again into $30, so any alternative to get lengthy on a pull-back right here could be golden; there may be some momentum exhaustion creeping in and if we do see value retrace into $18, I will likely be in search of indicators to get lengthy on the decrease timeframes, with a view to carry for that $30 degree. Beneath $18, a deeper pull-back would have us trying on the vary between $12-15 for entries. In fact, if we aren’t gifted a pull-back in any respect and $21 acts as help this week, a every day shut above $25 will possible result in the remainder of that vary getting stuffed in fairly shortly.

Turning to AVAX/BTC, we will see that value has rallied proper into a serious degree of prior help turned resistance, proper on the Could 2022 backside round 60k satoshis. Final week, value depraved above this degree however closed again on the degree, and we now have a very robust vary of reclaimed help beneath at 48.5-41k satoshis the place a higher-low could look to kind. If we do see that higher-low formation, and that aligns with an entry primarily based on the Greenback pair, the subsequent space of resistance above 60k is that trendline and the 23.6% fib retracement at 84k satoshis…





Day by day:





Day by day:


Worth: $5.26 (14,109 satoshis)

Market Cap: $3.969bn

Ideas: Starting with UNI/USD, we will see that value has lastly turned market construction bullish once more on the weekly after deviation beneath help at $4.21 led to a bounce off trendline resistance turned help and subsequent rally again above the extent, with value closing firmly above $4.75 and persevering with greater. We are actually sat with $4.75 having acted as help final week and $5.68 as resistance above; if we will maintain above $4.75, I might count on this minor resistance to provide method with $6.30 the foremost degree above to look at for. Nonetheless, if we see value break beneath that reclaimed help finally week’s low, I’m in search of a return to $4.21 for a possibility at a leveraged lengthy. I do have a spot place however I want to get levered publicity as near $4.21 as I can get it if doable. Dropping into the every day, we will see how value reclaimed the 200dMA which is now performing as help, however given how that performed out final time (August) it gives confluence for the significance of holding above $4.75 right here for bulls. Above $5.68, there may be air into $6.30 after which into $7.50. Let’s see if we get the golden alternative for a leveraged lengthy…

Turning to UNI/BTC, we will see that value broke beneath the double backside at 14.4k satoshis a number of weeks in the past, capitulating into multi-year help at 12k satoshis after which reclaiming 14k satoshis as help since. Worth is now sandwiched in between prior help turned resistance at 15.3k satoshis and help at 14k. If this degree offers method once more, I believe 12k is getting taken out and value runs the all-time low at 9.9k satoshis, which might be an unbelievable long-term shopping for alternative if we’re to count on UNI to stay vital subsequent cycle. Till that is again above 17k satoshis, nonetheless, I don’t assume it seems significantly robust.

Beam / Benefit Circle:


Day by day:


Worth: $0.0092 (25 satoshis)

Market Cap: $400.281mn

Ideas: While I’m conscious MC is now BEAM or BEAMX, for the needs of research I’ve shared the MC/USD chart right here in order that we will see all of price-history.

this, we will see how robust the reversal has been since turning the 200dMA into help, with value now pushing up once more $0.93 as resistance, with that degree additionally being the final main resistance degree between right here and the subsequent degree – 100% greater at $1.88. We’re seeing some momentum exhaustion right here as we come into this resistance, so if we’re to mark out an area prime it will possible be round right here, however I might count on any pull-back into $0.60 to be wolfed up given the power proven to date. For these in search of an entry, I might search for $0.60-0.65 as a primary space of curiosity for spot, adopted by $0.44 in case you are fortunate sufficient to get it. For these already on the practice, benefit from the trip, as I’m anticipating a minimum of $4 to be hit in 2024.





Day by day:





Day by day:


Worth: $1.08 (2892 satoshis)

Market Cap: $208.653mn

Ideas: Starting with SUSHI/USD, we will see from the weekly that value has performed out its bear market in a textbook vogue, capitulating into $0.48 (simply above the all-time lows) in Could earlier than forming a multi-month vary above this degree. Worth then ripped greater, rallying by way of $0.75 to show weekly construction bullish and persevering with by way of the year-long help for, 2022 at $0.90. Worth has since been consolidating above that degree as reclaimed help, and persevering with to carry above this degree could be very promising certainly for SUSHI bulls. If we do get a pull-back, look ahead to a pointy wick beneath $0.90 in direction of $0.75 and fast reclaim of the extent as help. That will be a sign to get lengthy if we see it. If we drop into the every day for readability, we will see how a swift transfer into $0.75 would additionally mark out a retest of prior resistance and the 200dMA as help, however I don’t know if we’re going to be granted such a possibility. If not, I might be in search of a every day shut above $1.30 after which look to lengthy the subsequent pull-back for the vary play again into $2.

Turning to SUSHI/BTC, we will see that in contrast to the Greenback pair that is nonetheless capped by trendline resistance from the 2021 highs, however weekly construction is now bullish and value is consolidating above prior resistance at 2700 satoshis. Clearly, the important thing right here for bulls is to carry this degree as help after which see a excessive quantity breakout above the trendline, reclaiming the Could 2022 lows at 3900 satoshis as help within the course of. If and once we see that, little question the start of SUSHI’s subsequent bull cycle is underway, in my opinion. If this trendline caps value right here nonetheless and we transfer again beneath 2700, I believe we see the all-time lows retested, with a deviation and reclaim of 1830 being the golden alternative and certain the spring for the subsequent cycle to start. Let’s see how issues unfold…



Day by day:


Worth: $0.0124 (33 satoshis)

Market Cap: $3.951mn

Ideas: Lastly, let’s check out LayerAI – a microcap that has began trying very promising, significantly given the AI narrative that’s sure to develop in 2024.

If we have a look at LAI/USD, we cam see that value misplaced 97% of its worth from the all-time excessive again in March into an all-time low at $0.005 in October, then rallying off that low to reclaim the June help at $0.0082 a number of weeks in the past on rising quantity. Worth additionally closed above trendline resistance, turning it into help, and has since been consolidating between $0.0082 as help and resistance at $0.012, the place the 200dMA can also be sat. We now have every day bullish construction right here additionally, and I’ve been shopping for inside this vary the previous week, trying so as to add on acceptance above $0.014, with a view to carry for a full cycle (new all-time highs possible, for my part). Invalidation is a detailed again beneath $0.0082.

And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook.

I hope you’ve discovered worth within the learn and thanks for supporting my work!

As ever, be happy to go away any feedback or questions beneath, or e mail me immediately at nik@altcointradershandbook.com.



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