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Market Outlook #243 – An Altcoin Dealer’s Weblog


Market Outlook #243 (thirty first October 2023)

Whats up, and welcome to the 243rd instalment of my Market Outlook.

On this week’s publish, I will probably be masking Bitcoin, Ethereum, Render, MultiversX, The Sandbox, Arweave and Verasity.

All reader requests this week, which is all the time good enjoyable – and as ever, when you have any requests for subsequent week’s Outlook, do let me know.

Bitcoin:

Weekly:

btcusdweekly

Day by day:

btcusddaily

Worth: $34,376

Market Cap: $671.871bn

Ideas: If we start by taking a look at BTC/USD, we are able to see from the weekly that worth closed firmly via the prior 2023 highs at $32.8k on rising quantity, pushing as excessive at $35.2k, beneath which it marginally closed. That is nice affirmation of the uptrend and little doubt we are able to count on the remainder of that hole into $39.6k to get stuffed in within the weeks to return. Nevertheless, we at the moment are sat proper across the 38.2% retracement of the complete bear market, and so it could not shock me after two large weekly rallies to see some type of consolidation right here probably. If we push again beneath $32.8k, I’d count on patrons to step in at prior resistance from the April and July vary highs, forming a higher-low round that space.

Dropping into the day by day, I’ve marked out the extra bullish state of affairs than a deep pull-back in the direction of $31.4k, which is a shallow pull-back beneath $33.4k into that channel trendline turning it into assist round $33k, then pushing on via $35.2k and up into $37k as a primary goal, adopted by $39.7k. We’re beginning to see some indicators of momentum exhaustion up right here, however nothing indicative of a longer-term correction as of but. I believe $31.3k is probably going the bottom we see this transfer on this subsequent week or so if we’re to maintain squeezing shorts and filling in that lengthy untraded hole. Not a lot else so as to add right here for now!


Ethereum:

ETH/USD

Weekly:

ethusdweekly

Day by day:

ethusddaily

ETH/BTC

Weekly:

ethbtcweekly

Day by day:

ethbtcdaily

Worth: $1801 (0.05237 BTC)

Market Cap: $216.636bn

Ideas: Taking a look at ETH/USD, from the weekly we are able to see that worth has pushed up via resistance at $1755 and turned weekly construction bullish, reclaiming the 200wMA however discovering resistance on the cluster of resistance between $1850 and trendline resistance from April 2023.  Weekly momentum can also be now starting to lean in the direction of bulls, however this can be a large hurdle to beat on the primary try. The actual fact we now have bullish weekly construction, nonetheless, means we are able to look to play longs with larger likelihood now if we pull again from this space again in the direction of the vary between the 200wMA and $1755 – that’s the place I  assume we are able to discover lots of worth for lengthy publicity with a view so as to add on a clear break and shut above the trendline. If we do see that breakout and acceptance above it, I believe we proceed in the direction of $2425 to play meet up with BTC. Turning to the day by day, we are able to see how the present vary is that $1755 stage as resistance turned assist and $1847 as resistance, and I might be eager to lengthy a sweep of $1755 into $1716 after which add above $1850 as talked about for a longer-term swing place. So long as we now maintain above $1616 although, I believe the momentum has shifted in favour of the bulls, even when ETH is underperforming BTC at current.

Turning to ETH/BTC, we are able to see simply how a lot it’s underperforming right here, with final week promoting off from the open via the 200wMA and Could 2021 lows all the best way into 0.051, above which it marginally closed, however with worth now sat in no man’s land with multi-year vary assist probably now turning resistance, and solely the swing-low at 0.0487 beneath to assist worth inside this previous 2 years of price-action. If we drop into the day by day, we’ve some minor divergence into this most up-to-date low however worth is simply chopping round beneath 0.0533 and above 0.051. What bulls wish to see here’s a sturdy push off this low again above 0.055, accepting again above it as assist. In that state of affairs, the underside could be very probably in for a very long time to return and we’d count on some type of sustained reversal into the trendline from there. Within the bearish state of affairs, 0.0533 continues to behave as resistance this week and worth closes beneath 0.051, falling from there to fill within the wick into 0.04877. It might be that we’d like a sweep of that swing-low earlier than we are able to get any momentum for a reversal, however accepting beneath that will be a really dangerous signal certainly for ETH/BTC.


Render:

RNDR/USD

Weekly:

rndrusdweekly

Day by day:

rndrusddaily

RNDR/BTC

Weekly:

rndrbtcweekly

Day by day:

rndrbtcdaily

Worth: $2.34 (6817 satoshis)

Market Cap: $871.389mn

Ideas: If we start by taking a look at RNDR/USD, we are able to see on the weekly that worth rallied final week proper into resistance at $2.63 that capped the pair again in April, closing marginally beneath it on rising quantity, with no indicators of momentum exhaustion on this timeframe. The pair has retraced slightly early this week off this resistance, however we’ve been in a macro uptrend since final yr; if we have a look at a pattern extension, we are able to see that $3.35 can be the subsequent space of curiosity, adopted by $4.60, each of which align with historic ranges of significance. Any pull-back right here is a chance to get lengthy, for my part, so long as this will now maintain above $1.80. Shut the weekly beneath that and it turns into extra probably that we retrace again into the August lows at $1.28. As quickly as we shut the weekly above $2.63, I believe we blast via $3 into that $3.35 space.

Turning to RNDR/BTC, we are able to see that worth reclaimed assist at 5850 satoshis and bounced off that into assist turned resistance at 7800, now consolidating inside final week’s vary. If we drop into the day by day for extra readability, we are able to see that this retracement is taking worth proper again into prior resistance and the 200dMA, so this can be the extent of the pull-back proper right here. Nevertheless, shut beneath this stage and I believe we squeeze decrease into 6220, which might be a pleasant spot to leap in, with invalidation on an in depth beneath 5850. Above 7800, there’s actually no resistance again into 9370 satoshis, so positively one to control in November.


MultiversX:

EGLD/USD

Weekly:

egldusdweekly

Day by day:

egldusddaily

EGLD/BTC

Weekly:

egldbtcweekly

Day by day:

egldbtcdaily

Worth: $29.59 (86,070 satoshis)

Market Cap: $773.589mn

Ideas: If we start by taking a look at EGLD/USD, we are able to see that the pair has been bleeding decrease at a much less steep price for the previous yr than it did via 2022, however we stay suppressed by trendline resistance from the September 2022 highs. That being stated, for the previous couple of months, the pair has been in a decent consolidation vary between historic resistance turned assist at $22.94 and assist turned resistance at $28.33, closing above that resistance final week. That is precisely the historic space wherein we’d need that tight vary to type and we at the moment are urgent proper up in opposition to trendline resistance as soon as once more, with momentum now pushing larger. What bulls must see here’s a weekly shut via trendline resistance and again above $33.30 – if that happens, I believe it’s wanting probably that the underside has shaped right here and we are able to count on worth to start pushing in the direction of $52, adopted by $66.45. Dropping into the day by day, we are able to see how the 200dMA can also be capping worth proper right here, offering confluence for the essential of a breakout. I might like to be a purchaser of this above $33 with a view so as to add above $38 and trying to maintain for the subsequent cycle.

Turning to EGLD/BTC, the pair continues to bleed decrease, now discovering assist at 81.1k satoshis however rejecting quite a few makes an attempt at a trendline breakout, with that trendline now urgent in opposition to worth once more. If it fails right here, naturally the downtrend persists and we transfer decrease into 73k satoshis as the subsequent stage of assist. Nevertheless, what’s type of insane right here is that there is no such thing as a assist in any respect for the pair beneath that stage all the best way again onto the December 2020 backside at 38.7k satoshis, so this can be a actually essential space for EGLD. Given how the broader market and the greenback pair are wanting, I might be very stunned if we shut beneath 73k satoshis, slightly anticipating some type of backside to start forming inside the subsequent 20% transfer decrease. However let’s see how November price-action unfolds…


The Sandbox:

SAND/USD

Weekly:

sandusdweekly

Day by day:

sandusddaily

SAND/BTC

Weekly:

sandbtcweekly

Day by day:

sandbtcdaily

Worth: $0.34 (989 satoshis)

Market Cap: $704.090mn

Ideas: Starting with SAND/USD, we are able to see that price-action appears to be like similar to EGLD/USD, with that current diminishing volatility and tight consolidation vary, adopted by final week’s shut proper round trendline resistance. We at the moment are sat on the trendline and beneath the December 2022 lows at $0.37 however bulls wish to see a clear weekly shut above this stage to start out getting excited. If we see that, we are able to look to play longs for the subsequent 30% transfer larger in the direction of that $0.49 resistance stage. If we drop into the day by day, we are able to see with extra readability that we really rejected the trendline however worth is sat above reclaimed assist right here at $0.33. This isn’t the place I might soar in, as if this stage fails, we’ve little assist again in the direction of the underside of the vary. Quite, I wish to see worth shut settle for above $0.37 as reclaimed assist after which look to purchase with an in depth again beneath it as invalidation for that vary play larger into $0.49.

Turning to SAND/BTC, we are able to see that worth remains to be pushing decrease, now sat in no man’s land between prior assist at 1120 satoshis and assist at 784 satoshis. I might count on to see that 784 space to behave as assist if we do push decrease into it from right here, however finally bulls wish to see momentum start to point out exhaustion down right here. If we have a look at thee day by day, we are able to see there’s some divergence right here and quantity beginning to push in, however no follow-through as of but. A clear push and shut via 1120 would start to look promising and we might count on 1275 to observe from there, with no resistance above that every one the best way into 1554 satoshis. Longer-term, we’re nonetheless nicely beneath trendline resistance right here, so solely on the lookout for the short-term performs.


Arweave:

AR/USD

Weekly:

arusdweekly

Day by day:

arusddaily

AR/BTC

Weekly:

arbtcweekly

Day by day:

arbtcdaily

Worth: $5.80 (16,884 satoshis)

Market Cap: $379.273mn

Ideas: If we start by taking a look at AR/USD, we are able to see that after a 728-day bear market, the pair has lastly pushed via trendline resistance after a 96% drawdown, printing a contemporary low at $3,70 solely 3 weeks in the past earlier than that acted as a spring for a reclaim of $4.11 and the next push larger. The pair is now discovering resistance at prior assist from December 2022 at $6.10 however so long as it will possibly maintain above the weekly open at $5.25 we’ve a weekly trendline breakout with weekly momentum additionally pushing in favour of the bulls. Dropping into the day by day, we are able to see how the 200dMA has additionally now been closed above, however I might not be stunned to see worth now flip decrease from this resistance to type a higher-low above that trendline. I might look to purchase spot on that pull-back, if we get it, with my invalidation at $4.70 – lose that stage and it not appears to be like enticing to me on any timeframe. That is to carry for probably 12 months…

Turning to AR/BTC, we are able to see that weekly momentum is diverging as worth bleeds decrease, printing a robust reversal candle into that all-time low at 12.5k satoshis. That led to continuation larger again above 16k, and bulls wish to see that stage act as reclaimed assist this week. Shut the weekly above that and I believe we’ve shaped that cyclical backside, and we are able to count on out efficiency from there all the best way again into 24k earlier than we discover a lot main resistance. And a weekly shut above 24k satoshis is the sign for disbelief, for my part. Very clear construction right here. Wanting briefly on the day by day, that vary between 15.3-16.1k satoshis ought to actually act as assist this week now that the pair has cleared it out with such momentum; type a higher-low in that space and I believe this retains squeezing larger into 20.9k subsequent week.


Verasity:

VRA/USD

Weekly:

vrausdweekly

Day by day:

vrausddaily

VRA/BTC

Weekly:

vrabtcweekly

Day by day:

vrabtcdaily

Worth: $0.0063 (18 satoshis)

Market Cap: $64.624mn

Ideas: Starting with VRA/USD, we are able to see that worth shaped the cyclical backside again in December 2022, from which the pair rallied over 400% into $0.011 and has since been in its first correction since, bleeding for months till it shaped a low above reclaimed assist at $0.0035 in September. That led to a excessive quantity rally and break again above $0.0053, with weekly construction turning bullish once more and worth now trying to start its subsequent leg larger, with $0.0075 as the subsequent space of resistance to beat. While this holds above $0.0035, it’s clear that the primary main correction of a brand new bull cycle is over, and we are able to count on the pair to proceed in the direction of the $0.011 excessive and the 200wMA from right here within the coming months; shut the weekly above that and I believe we squeeze into $0.0155, adopted by $0.026.

Turning to VRA/BTC, we’ve been consolidating above these December 2022 lows for months, then rallying to reclaim assist above them at 16 satoshis, which held agency final week. That’s an important stage right here now, given the construction starting to type right here. Bulls need that to carry as a higher-low, from which we might count on continuation larger via reclaimed resistance at 26 satoshis into the 200wMA at 30 satoshis; shut the weekly above that and there’s no resistance again into the 2023 highs at 46 satoshis. Not a lot else so as to add right here as that is a number of the cleanest market construction I’ve seen. So long as there is no such thing as a weekly shut beneath 13 satoshis VRA is in a brand new bull market.

And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook.

I hope you’ve discovered worth within the learn and thanks for supporting my work!

As ever, be happy to go away any feedback or questions beneath, or electronic mail me straight at nik@altcointradershandbook.com.


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